Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

◀ Back to the seats

● House // Race file

[ House // TX-20 ]

Texas's 20th District

Joaquin Castro (D)vsEdgardo Rafael Baez (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+16 · Incumbent: Joaquin Castro (D)

99 in 100

Joaquin Castro favored>99%

All but certain for Joaquin Castro: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+16
  • Incumbent:Joaquin Castro (D)
  • District:20 of 38 in Texas
  • Odds:Castro >99%
  • Margin:Castro +42.5, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Castro +42.5

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Castro +42.5
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Castro +34.6 to Castro +50.4 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Castro +42.5 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Castro ahead is positive, Baez ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+16, worth 27.8 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Joaquin Castro, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Castro +42.5 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Joaquin Castro (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Joaquin Castro (D, incumbent) vs Edgardo Rafael Baez (R)
Last time
2024: Joaquin Castro (D) was unopposed.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 56.1, Harris 42.5. Trump by 13.7.
Lean
D+16 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

◀ Back to the seats