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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // TX-30 ]

Texas's 30th District

Frederick Haynes III (D)vsEverett Jackson (R)

open seat · Lean: D+25 · Incumbent: None (new seat)

99 in 100

Frederick Haynes III favored>99%

All but certain for Frederick Haynes III: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Lean:D+25
  • Incumbent:None (new seat)
  • District:30 of 38 in Texas
  • Odds:Haynes >99%
  • Margin:Haynes +53.4, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Haynes +53.4

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Haynes +53.4
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Haynes +45.5 to Haynes +61.3 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Haynes +53.4 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Haynes ahead is positive, Jackson ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+25, worth 43.5 points to the Democrat), an open seat with no incumbency bonus, and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Haynes +53.4 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
New seat, no incumbent.
On the ballot
Frederick Haynes III (D) vs Everett Jackson (R)
Last time
2024: Jasmine Crockett (D) took 84.9 with no Republican on the ballot. Under the previous map.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 56.1, Harris 42.5. Trump by 13.7.
Lean
D+25 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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