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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // TX-31 ]

Texas's 31st District

Justin Early (D)vsJohn Carter (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+11 · Incumbent: John Carter (R)

9 in 10

John Carter favored97%

All but certain for John Carter: a 97 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+11
  • Incumbent:John Carter (R)
  • District:31 of 38 in Texas
  • Odds:Carter 97%
  • Margin:Carter +14.0, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Carter +14.0

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Carter +14.0
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Carter +21.9 to Carter +6.1 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Carter +14.0 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Early ahead is positive, Carter ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+11, worth 19.1 points to the Republican), the incumbent (John Carter, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Carter +14.0 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
John Carter (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Justin Early (D) vs John Carter (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 35.6, Republican 64.4. Carter by 28.8.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 56.1, Harris 42.5. Trump by 13.7.
Lean
R+11 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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