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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // TX-33 ]

Texas's 33rd District

Colin Allred (D)vsPatrick Gillespie (R)

open seat · Lean: D+18 · Incumbent: Jasmine Crockett Redistricted from the 30th district (D), not running

99 in 100

Colin Allred favored>99%

All but certain for Colin Allred: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Lean:D+18
  • Incumbent:Jasmine Crockett Redistricted from the 30th district (D), not running
  • District:33 of 38 in Texas
  • Odds:Allred >99%
  • Margin:Allred +41.2, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Allred +41.2

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Allred +41.2
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Allred +33.3 to Allred +49.1 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Allred +41.2 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Allred ahead is positive, Gillespie ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+18, worth 31.3 points to the Democrat), an open seat with no incumbency bonus, and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Allred +41.2 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Jasmine Crockett Redistricted from the 30th district (D) is running for Senate instead. Open seat.
On the ballot
Colin Allred (D) vs Patrick Gillespie (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 68.8, Republican 31.2. Veasey by 37.6.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 56.1, Harris 42.5. Trump by 13.7.
Lean
D+18 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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