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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // TX-37 ]

Texas's 37th District

Greg Casar (D)vsLauren Peña (R)

open seat · Lean: D+30 · Incumbent: Lloyd Doggett (D), not running

99 in 100

Greg Casar favored>99%

All but certain for Greg Casar: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Lean:D+30
  • Incumbent:Lloyd Doggett (D), not running
  • District:37 of 38 in Texas
  • Odds:Casar >99%
  • Margin:Casar +62.1, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Casar +62.1

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Casar +62.1
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Casar +54.2 to Casar +70.0 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Casar +62.1 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Casar ahead is positive, Peña ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+30, worth 52.2 points to the Democrat), an open seat with no incumbency bonus, and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Casar +62.1 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Lloyd Doggett (D) is retiring. Open seat.
On the ballot
Greg Casar (D) vs Lauren Peña (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 74.2, Republican 23.6. Doggett by 50.6.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 56.1, Harris 42.5. Trump by 13.7.
Lean
D+30 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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