Pennsylvania's 10th District

Janelle Stelson (D)vsScott Perry (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+3 · Incumbent: Scott Perry (R)

6 in 10

Janelle Stelson favored58%

A slight edge for Janelle Stelson: a 58 percent chance of winning. Polls: Janelle Stelson up 3.0.

Seat:Incumbent running
Lean:R+3
Incumbent:Scott Perry (R)
District:10 of 17 in Pennsylvania
Odds:Stelson 58%
Margin:Stelson +1.2, give or take 4.8
Polls:5, averaging Stelson +3.0
Latest poll:Susquehanna Polling & Research, Inc., Oct 11, Stelson +3.0
Generic ballot:D+8.2
T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Stelson +1.2

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin: Stelson +1.2
Uncertainty: 4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range: Perry +4.9 to Stelson +7.3 (80 percent)
Poll average: Stelson +3.0 across 5 polls, worth 0.8 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point: Perry +0.1 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Stelson ahead is positive, Perry ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 5 public polls

Susquehanna Polling & Research, Inc.Stelson +3
Oct 11 · A- · 300 LV49 to 46 · 81% weight
Franklin & Marshall CollegeStelson +3
Sep 20 · A/B · 378 RV47 to 44 · 19% weight
Normington, Petts & AssociatesStelson +6
Apr 23 · unrated · 400 RV51 to 45 · 0% weight
Democratic sponsoradjusted Stelson +2.3
Public Policy PollingStelson +4
Nov 19 · B+ · 549 RV48 to 44 · 0% weight
Partisan sponsoradjusted Stelson +4.6
Public Policy PollingStelson +3
Jul 11 · B+ · 559 RV46 to 43 · 0% weight
Democratic sponsoradjusted Perry +0.9

Pollster	Grade	Date	Sample	Result	Weight
Susquehanna Polling & Research, Inc.	A-	Oct 11	300LV	Stelson +349 to 46	81%
Franklin & Marshall College	A/B	Sep 20	378RV	Stelson +347 to 44	19%
Normington, Petts & AssociatesDemocratic sponsor	unrated	Apr 23	400RV	Stelson +651 to 45adjusted Stelson +2.3	0%
Public Policy PollingPartisan sponsor	B+	Nov 19	549RV	Stelson +448 to 44adjusted Stelson +4.6	0%
Public Policy PollingDemocratic sponsor	B+	Jul 11	559RV	Stelson +346 to 43adjusted Perry +0.9	0%

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat: Scott Perry (R), running for another term.
On the ballot: Janelle Stelson (D) vs Scott Perry (R, incumbent)
Last time: 2024: Democrat 49.4, Republican 50.6. Perry by 1.2.
President: 2024, statewide: Trump 50.4, Harris 48.7. Trump by 1.7.
Lean: R+3 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

Democrat
Janelle Stelson
Stelson on Ballotpedia ↗
Republican
Scott Perry
Perry on Ballotpedia ↗

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