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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // AZ-02 ]

Arizona's 2nd District

Jonathan Nez (D)vsEli Crane (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+7 · Incumbent: Eli Crane (R)

8 in 10

Eli Crane favored85%

Likely for Eli Crane: a 85 percent chance of winning. Polls: Eli Crane up 5.5.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+7
  • Incumbent:Eli Crane (R)
  • District:2 of 9 in Arizona
  • Odds:Crane 85%
  • Margin:Crane +6.4, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:2, averaging Crane +5.5
  • Latest poll:GBAO, Aug 24, Crane +2.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Crane +6.4

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Crane +6.4
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Crane +12.5 to Crane +0.3 (80 percent)
Poll average
Crane +5.5 across 2 polls, worth 0.0 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Crane +7.0 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Nez ahead is positive, Crane ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 2 public polls

  • GBAOCrane +2
    Aug 24 · B/C · 500 LV44 to 46 · 100% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Crane +5.5
  • GBAOCrane +3
    Jun 15 · B/C · 500 LV41 to 44 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Crane +6.5

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Eli Crane (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Jonathan Nez (D) vs Eli Crane (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 45.5, Republican 54.5. Crane by 9.0.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 52.2, Harris 46.7. Trump by 5.5.
Lean
R+7 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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