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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // AZ-06 ]

Arizona's 6th District

JoAnna Mendoza (D)vsJuan Ciscomani (R)

incumbent running · Lean: an even district · Incumbent: Juan Ciscomani (R)

6 in 10

JoAnna Mendoza favored65%

A slight edge for JoAnna Mendoza: a 65 percent chance of winning. Polls: Juan Ciscomani up 1.6.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:an even district
  • Incumbent:Juan Ciscomani (R)
  • District:6 of 9 in Arizona
  • Odds:Mendoza 65%
  • Margin:Mendoza +2.4, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:3, averaging Ciscomani +1.6
  • Latest poll:Normington, Petts & Associates, Jun 11, Mendoza +2.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Mendoza +2.4

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Mendoza +2.4
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Ciscomani +3.7 to Mendoza +8.5 (80 percent)
Poll average
Ciscomani +1.6 across 3 polls, worth 0.0 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Mendoza +5.2 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Mendoza ahead is positive, Ciscomani ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 3 public polls

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Juan Ciscomani (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
JoAnna Mendoza (D) vs Juan Ciscomani (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 47.5, Republican 50.0. Ciscomani by 2.5.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 52.2, Harris 46.7. Trump by 5.5.
Lean
Even

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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