Michigan's 4th District

Sean McCann (D)vsBill Huizenga (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+3 · Incumbent: Bill Huizenga (R)

6 in 10

Bill Huizenga favored57%

A slight edge for Bill Huizenga: a 57 percent chance of winning. Polls: Bill Huizenga up 2.5.

Seat:Incumbent running
Lean:R+3
Incumbent:Bill Huizenga (R)
District:4 of 13 in Michigan
Odds:Huizenga 57%
Margin:Huizenga +1.1, give or take 4.8
Polls:4, averaging Huizenga +2.5
Latest poll:GBAO, Sep 16, McCann +1.0
Generic ballot:D+8.2
T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Huizenga +1.1

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin: Huizenga +1.1
Uncertainty: 4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range: Huizenga +7.2 to McCann +5.0 (80 percent)
Poll average: Huizenga +2.5 across 4 polls, worth 0.1 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point: Huizenga +0.1 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: McCann ahead is positive, Huizenga ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 4 public polls

GBAOMcCann +1
Sep 16 · B/C · 500 LV47 to 46 · 100% weight
Democratic sponsoradjusted Huizenga +2.5
GBAOMcCann +3
Jun 01 · B/C · 500 LV48 to 45 · 0% weight
Democratic sponsoradjusted Huizenga +0.5
Ragnar Research PartnersHuizenga +1
Mar 14 · B/C · 400 LV42 to 43 · 0% weight
Republican sponsoradjusted McCann +2.7
Public Policy PollingHuizenga +2
Nov 21 · B+ · 559 RV42 to 44 · 0% weight
adjusted Huizenga +1.4

Pollster	Grade	Date	Sample	Result	Weight
GBAODemocratic sponsor	B/C	Sep 16	500LV	McCann +147 to 46adjusted Huizenga +2.5	100%
GBAODemocratic sponsor	B/C	Jun 01	500LV	McCann +348 to 45adjusted Huizenga +0.5	0%
Ragnar Research PartnersRepublican sponsor	B/C	Mar 14	400LV	Huizenga +142 to 43adjusted McCann +2.7	0%
Public Policy Polling	B+	Nov 21	559RV	Huizenga +242 to 44adjusted Huizenga +1.4	0%

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat: Bill Huizenga (R), running for another term.
On the ballot: Sean McCann (D) vs Bill Huizenga (R, incumbent)
Last time: 2024: Democrat 43.4, Republican 55.1. Huizenga by 11.7.
President: 2024, statewide: Trump 49.7, Harris 48.3. Trump by 1.4.
Lean: R+3 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

Democrat
Sean McCann
McCann on Ballotpedia ↗
Republican
Bill Huizenga
Huizenga on Ballotpedia ↗

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