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T-minus 16 days

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[ House // MI-10 ]

Michigan's 10th District

Christina Hines (D)vsMike Bouchard (R)

open seat · Lean: R+3 · Incumbent: John James (R), not running

6 in 10

Christina Hines favored59%

A slight edge for Christina Hines: a 59 percent chance of winning. Polls: Mike Bouchard up 3.1.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Lean:R+3
  • Incumbent:John James (R), not running
  • District:10 of 13 in Michigan
  • Odds:Hines 59%
  • Margin:Hines +1.5, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:2, averaging Bouchard +3.1
  • Latest poll:Global Strategy Group, Aug 13, tied
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Hines +1.5

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Hines +1.5
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Bouchard +4.6 to Hines +7.6 (80 percent)
Poll average
Bouchard +3.1 across 2 polls, worth 0.0 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Hines +4.7 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Hines ahead is positive, Bouchard ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 2 public polls

  • Global Strategy GroupTie
    Aug 13 · B/C · 600 LV45 to 45 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Bouchard +3.1
  • Public Policy PollingHines +2
    Jan 17 · B+ · 592 RV44 to 42 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Bouchard +1.9

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
John James (R) is running for governor instead. Open seat.
On the ballot
Christina Hines (D) vs Mike Bouchard (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 45.0, Republican 51.1. James by 6.1.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 49.7, Harris 48.3. Trump by 1.4.
Lean
R+3 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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