North Carolina's 1st District

Don Davis (D)vsLaurie Buckhout (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+5 · Incumbent: Don Davis (D)

8 in 10

Don Davis favored84%

Likely for Don Davis: a 84 percent chance of winning. Polls: Don Davis up 7.1.

Seat:Incumbent running
Lean:R+5
Incumbent:Don Davis (D)
District:1 of 14 in North Carolina
Odds:Davis 84%
Margin:Davis +6.4, give or take 4.8
Polls:7, averaging Davis +7.1
Latest poll:co/efficient, Oct 08, Buckhout +1.0
Generic ballot:D+8.2
T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Davis +6.4

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin: Davis +6.4
Uncertainty: 4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range: Davis +0.3 to Davis +12.5 (80 percent)
Poll average: Davis +7.1 across 7 polls, worth 1.4 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point: Davis +6.0 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Davis ahead is positive, Buckhout ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 7 public polls

co/efficientBuckhout +1
Oct 08 · B · 623 LV45 to 46 · 29% weight
Republican sponsoradjusted Davis +4.8
Neighborhood Research CorporationDavis +10
Oct 06 · B/C · 303 LV51 to 41 · 42% weight
GQRDavis +8
Oct 04 · A- · 500 LV47 to 39 · 23% weight
Democratic sponsoradjusted Davis +5.7
GBAODavis +7
Sep 11 · B/C · 500 LV50 to 43 · 6% weight
Democratic sponsoradjusted Davis +3.5
GQRDavis +4
Jun 28 · A- · 500 LV45 to 41 · 0% weight
Democratic sponsoradjusted Davis +1.7
co/efficientBuckhout +4
Apr 29 · B · 842 LV42 to 46 · 0% weight
Republican sponsoradjusted Davis +1.8
GQRDavis +3
Feb 02 · A- · 500 LV42 to 39 · 0% weight
Democratic sponsoradjusted Davis +0.7

Pollster	Grade	Date	Sample	Result	Weight
co/efficientRepublican sponsor	B	Oct 08	623LV	Buckhout +145 to 46adjusted Davis +4.8	29%
Neighborhood Research Corporation	B/C	Oct 06	303LV	Davis +1051 to 41	42%
GQRDemocratic sponsor	A-	Oct 04	500LV	Davis +847 to 39adjusted Davis +5.7	23%
GBAODemocratic sponsor	B/C	Sep 11	500LV	Davis +750 to 43adjusted Davis +3.5	6%
GQRDemocratic sponsor	A-	Jun 28	500LV	Davis +445 to 41adjusted Davis +1.7	0%
co/efficientRepublican sponsor	B	Apr 29	842LV	Buckhout +442 to 46adjusted Davis +1.8	0%
GQRDemocratic sponsor	A-	Feb 02	500LV	Davis +342 to 39adjusted Davis +0.7	0%

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat: Don Davis (D), running for another term.
On the ballot: Don Davis (D, incumbent) vs Laurie Buckhout (R)
Last time: 2024: Democrat 49.5, Republican 47.8. Davis by 1.7.
President: 2024, statewide: Trump 50.9, Harris 47.6. Trump by 3.2.
Lean: R+5 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

Democrat
Don Davis
Davis on Ballotpedia ↗
Republican
Laurie Buckhout
Buckhout on Ballotpedia ↗

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