Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

◀ Back to the seats

● House // Race file

[ House // NC-03 ]

North Carolina's 3rd District

Raymond Smith Jr. (D)vsGreg Murphy (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+6 · Incumbent: Greg Murphy (R)

8 in 10

Greg Murphy favored83%

Likely for Greg Murphy: a 83 percent chance of winning. Polls: Greg Murphy up 7.4.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+6
  • Incumbent:Greg Murphy (R)
  • District:3 of 14 in North Carolina
  • Odds:Murphy 83%
  • Margin:Murphy +6.1, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:1, averaging Murphy +7.4
  • Latest poll:Tulchin Research, Aug 02, Murphy +3.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Murphy +6.1

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Murphy +6.1
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Murphy +12.2 to Even (80 percent)
Poll average
Murphy +7.4 across 1 poll, worth 0.0 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Murphy +5.3 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Smith ahead is positive, Murphy ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 1 public poll

  • Tulchin ResearchMurphy +3
    Aug 02 · B/C41 to 44 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Murphy +7.4

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Greg Murphy (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Raymond Smith Jr. (D) vs Greg Murphy (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Greg Murphy (R) took 77.4 with no Democrat on the ballot.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 50.9, Harris 47.6. Trump by 3.2.
Lean
R+6 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

◀ Back to the seats