Texas's 28th District

Henry Cuellar (D)vsTano Tijerina (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+3 · Incumbent: Henry Cuellar (D)

9 in 10

Henry Cuellar favored97%

All but certain for Henry Cuellar: a 97 percent chance of winning. Polls: Henry Cuellar up 16.8.

Seat:Incumbent running
Lean:R+3
Incumbent:Henry Cuellar (D)
District:28 of 38 in Texas
Odds:Cuellar 97%
Margin:Cuellar +12.6, give or take 4.8
Polls:3, averaging Cuellar +16.8
Latest poll:DCCC Targeting Team, Oct 13, Cuellar +20.0
Generic ballot:D+8.3
T-minus:13 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Cuellar +12.6

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin: Cuellar +12.6
Uncertainty: 4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range: Cuellar +6.5 to Cuellar +18.7 (80 percent)
Poll average: Cuellar +16.8 across 3 polls, worth 0.6 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point: Cuellar +9.6 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Cuellar ahead is positive, Tijerina ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 3 public polls

DCCC Targeting TeamCuellar +20
Oct 13 · B/C · 536 LV54 to 34 · 95% weight
Democratic sponsoradjusted Cuellar +17.1
Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey CenterCuellar +11
Aug 22 · unrated · 600 LV45 to 34 · 5% weight
adjusted Cuellar +11.3
Pulse Decision ScienceTijerina +9
Jun 23 · unrated · 400 LV33 to 42 · 0% weight
Republican sponsoradjusted Tijerina +4.5

Pollster	Grade	Date	Sample	Result	Weight
DCCC Targeting TeamDemocratic sponsor	B/C	Oct 13	536LV	Cuellar +2054 to 34adjusted Cuellar +17.1	95%
Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center	unrated	Aug 22	600LV	Cuellar +1145 to 34adjusted Cuellar +11.3	5%
Pulse Decision ScienceRepublican sponsor	unrated	Jun 23	400LV	Tijerina +933 to 42adjusted Tijerina +4.5	0%

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Campaign money // FEC filings

Counting the campaign accounts…

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat: Henry Cuellar (D), running for another term.
On the ballot: Henry Cuellar (D, incumbent) vs Tano Tijerina (R)
Last time: 2024: Democrat 52.8, Republican 47.2. Cuellar by 5.6.
President: 2024, statewide: Trump 56.1, Harris 42.5. Trump by 13.7.
Lean: R+3 by the Cook partisan index
The raters: Cook Lean D · Sabato Lean D · Inside Elections Tilt D

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

Democrat
Henry Cuellar
Cuellar on Ballotpedia ↗
Republican
Tano Tijerina
Tijerina on Ballotpedia ↗

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