Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // TX-35 ]

Texas's 35th District

Johnny Garcia (D)vsCarlos De La Cruz (R)

open seat · Lean: R+4 · Incumbent: None (new seat)

a coin flip

Too close to call52%

The model gives Johnny Garcia a 48 percent chance and Carlos De La Cruz 52 percent. Inside five points either way the model does not name a favorite. Polls: Carlos De La Cruz up 4.7.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Lean:R+4
  • Incumbent:None (new seat)
  • District:35 of 38 in Texas
  • Odds:a coin flip, Cruz 52%
  • Margin:Cruz +0.2, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:1, averaging Cruz +4.7
  • Latest poll:Normington, Petts & Associates, Aug 31, Cruz +1.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Cruz +0.2

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Cruz +0.2
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Cruz +6.3 to Garcia +5.9 (80 percent)
Poll average
Cruz +4.7 across 1 poll, worth 0.0 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Garcia +2.9 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Garcia ahead is positive, Cruz ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 1 public poll

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
New seat, no incumbent.
On the ballot
Johnny Garcia (D) vs Carlos De La Cruz (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 67.4, Republican 32.6. Casar by 34.8. Under the previous map.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 56.1, Harris 42.5. Trump by 13.7.
Lean
R+4 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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