Live results here election night Nov 3 · 5 days
● House // Race file
[ House // TX-38 ]
Texas's 38th District
Melissa McDonough (D)vsJon Bonck (R)
open seat · Lean: R+10 · Incumbent: Wesley Hunt (R), not running
Democrat
Republican
84 in 100
Jon Bonck favored84%
Likely for Jon Bonck: a 84 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.
- Margin:Bonck +7.5, give or take 7.4
- Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
- Generic ballot:D+8.2
- District:38 of 38 in Texas
▸ Margin // Uncertainty
Bonck +7.5
The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 7.4 points, counting a miss the whole country, or one state, could share. Polls have missed by more than that before.
- Projected margin
- Bonck +7.5
- Uncertainty
- give or take 7.4 points: 6.2 from this race alone, plus a miss of about 3.6 that every race in the country could share, plus about 2.0 that the districts in one state could share
- Eight times in ten
- Bonck +17.0 to McDonough +2.0
- Poll average
- No polls
- Starting point
- Bonck +7.5 before any polls
Margins read Democrat minus Republican: McDonough ahead is positive, Bonck ahead is negative.
▸ Movement // Loading
Reading the history
▸ What if the polls are wrong? // Replay a past miss
No polls here yet, so this number rides on the national picture. Replay a past miss of the national polls on this race and see what the number would be.
No extra polling error
Bonck 84 in 100
margin Bonck +7.5
Dead on: this is the published number.
Only this panel moves. Everything else on the page stays on the published forecast.
▸ Polls // None yet
No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+10, worth 17.4 points to the Republican), an open seat with no incumbency bonus, and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Bonck +7.5 with an uncertainty of 7.4 points.
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▸ Campaign money // FEC filings
Counting the campaign accounts…
▸ Personal finances // Official disclosures
Loading the disclosure links.
▸ Race file // The facts
- The seat
- Wesley Hunt (R) is running for Senate instead. Open seat.
- On the ballot
- Melissa McDonough (D) vs Jon Bonck (R)
- Last time
- 2024: Democrat 37.2, Republican 62.7. Hunt by 25.5.
- President
- 2024, statewide: Trump 56.1, Harris 42.5. Trump by 13.7.
- Lean
- R+10 by the Cook partisan index
- The raters
- Cook Solid R · Sabato Safe R · Inside Elections Solid R
Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗
▸ Candidates // Read more
Democrat
Melissa McDonoughMelissa McDonough's volunteer work has included leading a PTO, school band boosters and church programs for fifth and sixth graders.
Republican
Jon BonckJon Bonck and his wife, Laura, started buying rental property while both worked in Houston's oil and gas industry.
▸ More from Texas // Same ballot
▸ The closest House races // Nearest a coin flip
House
Wisconsin's 3rd District
A coin flip · Cooke vs Van Orden
House
Pennsylvania's 8th District
A coin flip · Cognetti vs Bresnahan
House
Wisconsin's 1st District
A coin flip · Berman vs Steil
The three House races nearest a coin flip today.