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T-minus 16 days

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[ House // WA-03 ]

Washington's 3rd District

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D)vsJohn Braun (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+2 · Incumbent: Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D)

8 in 10

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez favored83%

Likely for Marie Gluesenkamp Perez: a 83 percent chance of winning. Polls: a dead heat.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+2
  • Incumbent:Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D)
  • District:3 of 10 in Washington
  • Odds:Perez 83%
  • Margin:Perez +6.1, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:3, averaging Braun +1.0
  • Latest poll:DHM Research, Sep 27, Braun +1.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Perez +6.1

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Perez +6.1
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Even to Perez +12.2 (80 percent)
Poll average
Braun +1.0 across 3 polls, worth 0.2 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Perez +11.2 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Perez ahead is positive, Braun ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 3 public polls

  • DHM ResearchBraun +1
    Sep 27 · B/C · 543 LV47 to 48 · 100% weight
  • Emerson CollegeBraun +1
    Jul 10 · A · 500 LV42 to 43 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Braun +5.5
  • co/efficientBraun +7
    Apr 29 · B · 982 LV34 to 41 · 0% weight
    Republican sponsoradjusted Braun +1.2

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D, incumbent) vs John Braun (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 51.7, Republican 47.9. Perez by 3.8.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 39.0, Harris 57.2. Harris by 18.2.
Lean
R+2 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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