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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // CA-26 ]

California's 26th District

Jacqui Irwin (D)vsSam Gallucci (R)

open seat · Lean: D+9 · Incumbent: Julia Brownley (D), not running

99 in 100

Jacqui Irwin favored>99%

All but certain for Jacqui Irwin: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Lean:D+9
  • Incumbent:Julia Brownley (D), not running
  • District:26 of 52 in California
  • Odds:Irwin >99%
  • Margin:Irwin +25.6, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Irwin +25.6

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Irwin +25.6
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Irwin +17.7 to Irwin +33.5 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Irwin +25.6 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Irwin ahead is positive, Gallucci ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+9, worth 15.7 points to the Democrat), an open seat with no incumbency bonus, and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Irwin +25.6 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Julia Brownley (D) is retiring. Open seat.
On the ballot
Jacqui Irwin (D) vs Sam Gallucci (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 56.1, Republican 43.9. Brownley by 12.2.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 38.3, Harris 58.5. Harris by 20.1.
Lean
D+9 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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