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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // GA-01 ]

Georgia's 1st District

Amanda Hollowell (D)vsJim Kingston (R)

open seat · Lean: R+8 · Incumbent: Buddy Carter (R), not running

7 in 10

Jim Kingston favored71%

Likely for Jim Kingston: a 71 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Lean:R+8
  • Incumbent:Buddy Carter (R), not running
  • District:1 of 14 in Georgia
  • Odds:Kingston 71%
  • Margin:Kingston +4.0, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Kingston +4.0

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Kingston +4.0
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Kingston +11.9 to Hollowell +3.9 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Kingston +4.0 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Hollowell ahead is positive, Kingston ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+8, worth 13.9 points to the Republican), an open seat with no incumbency bonus, and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Kingston +4.0 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Buddy Carter (R) is running for Senate instead. Open seat.
On the ballot
Amanda Hollowell (D) vs Jim Kingston (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 38.0, Republican 62.0. Carter by 24.0.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 50.7, Harris 48.5. Trump by 2.2.
Lean
R+8 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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