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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // GA-05 ]

Georgia's 5th District

Nikema Williams (D)vsJohn Oscar Salvesen (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+36 · Incumbent: Nikema Williams (D)

99 in 100

Nikema Williams favored>99%

All but certain for Nikema Williams: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+36
  • Incumbent:Nikema Williams (D)
  • District:5 of 14 in Georgia
  • Odds:Williams >99%
  • Margin:Williams +77.3, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Williams +77.3

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Williams +77.3
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Williams +69.4 to Williams +85.2 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Williams +77.3 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Williams ahead is positive, Salvesen ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+36, worth 62.6 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Nikema Williams, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Williams +77.3 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Nikema Williams (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Nikema Williams (D, incumbent) vs John Oscar Salvesen (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 85.7, Republican 14.3. Williams by 71.4.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 50.7, Harris 48.5. Trump by 2.2.
Lean
D+36 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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