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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // GA-11 ]

Georgia's 11th District

Chris Harden (D)vsJohn Cowan (R)

open seat · Lean: R+12 · Incumbent: Barry Loudermilk (R), not running

9 in 10

John Cowan favored94%

Very likely for John Cowan: a 94 percent chance of winning. Polls: John Cowan up 7.5.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Lean:R+12
  • Incumbent:Barry Loudermilk (R), not running
  • District:11 of 14 in Georgia
  • Odds:Cowan 94%
  • Margin:Cowan +9.5, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:1, averaging Cowan +7.5
  • Latest poll:Miller Consulting Services, Sep 11, Cowan +3.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Cowan +9.5

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Cowan +9.5
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Cowan +15.6 to Cowan +3.4 (80 percent)
Poll average
Cowan +7.5 across 1 poll, worth 0.1 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Cowan +11.0 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Harden ahead is positive, Cowan ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 1 public poll

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Barry Loudermilk (R) is retiring. Open seat.
On the ballot
Chris Harden (D) vs John Cowan (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 32.7, Republican 67.3. Loudermilk by 34.6.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 50.7, Harris 48.5. Trump by 2.2.
Lean
R+12 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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