Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // GA-04 ]

Georgia's 4th District

Hank Johnson (D)vsJames Duffie (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+27 · Incumbent: Hank Johnson (D)

99 in 100

Hank Johnson favored>99%

All but certain for Hank Johnson: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+27
  • Incumbent:Hank Johnson (D)
  • District:4 of 14 in Georgia
  • Odds:Johnson >99%
  • Margin:Johnson +61.6, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Johnson +61.6

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Johnson +61.6
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Johnson +53.7 to Johnson +69.5 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Johnson +61.6 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Johnson ahead is positive, Duffie ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+27, worth 47.0 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Hank Johnson, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Johnson +61.6 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Hank Johnson (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Hank Johnson (D, incumbent) vs James Duffie (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 75.6, Republican 24.4. Johnson by 51.2.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 50.7, Harris 48.5. Trump by 2.2.
Lean
D+27 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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