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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // GA-10 ]

Georgia's 10th District

Pam Delancy (D)vsHouston Gaines (R)

open seat · Lean: R+11 · Incumbent: Mike Collins (R), not running

9 in 10

Houston Gaines favored89%

Very likely for Houston Gaines: a 89 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Lean:R+11
  • Incumbent:Mike Collins (R), not running
  • District:10 of 14 in Georgia
  • Odds:Gaines 89%
  • Margin:Gaines +9.2, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Gaines +9.2

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Gaines +9.2
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Gaines +17.1 to Gaines +1.3 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Gaines +9.2 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Delancy ahead is positive, Gaines ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+11, worth 19.1 points to the Republican), an open seat with no incumbency bonus, and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Gaines +9.2 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Mike Collins (R) is running for Senate instead. Open seat.
On the ballot
Pam Delancy (D) vs Houston Gaines (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 36.9, Republican 63.1. Collins by 26.2.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 50.7, Harris 48.5. Trump by 2.2.
Lean
R+11 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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