Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

◀ Back to the seats

● House // Race file

[ House // GA-03 ]

Georgia's 3rd District

Maura Keller (D)vsBrian Jack (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+15 · Incumbent: Brian Jack (R)

99 in 100

Brian Jack favored>99%

All but certain for Brian Jack: a 99 percent chance of winning. Polls: Brian Jack up 9.5.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+15
  • Incumbent:Brian Jack (R)
  • District:3 of 14 in Georgia
  • Odds:Jack >99%
  • Margin:Jack +16.2, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:1, averaging Jack +9.5
  • Latest poll:VoteNexus, Oct 07, Jack +5.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Jack +16.2

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Jack +16.2
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Jack +22.3 to Jack +10.1 (80 percent)
Poll average
Jack +9.5 across 1 poll, worth 0.5 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Jack +20.9 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Keller ahead is positive, Jack ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 1 public poll

  • VoteNexusJack +5
    Oct 07 · unrated · 301 LV45 to 50 · 100% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Jack +9.5

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Brian Jack (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Maura Keller (D) vs Brian Jack (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 33.7, Republican 66.3. Jack by 32.6.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 50.7, Harris 48.5. Trump by 2.2.
Lean
R+15 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

◀ Back to the seats