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T-minus 16 days

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[ House // GA-07 ]

Georgia's 7th District

Tony Kozycki (D)vsRich McCormick (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+11 · Incumbent: Rich McCormick (R)

9 in 10

Rich McCormick favored93%

Very likely for Rich McCormick: a 93 percent chance of winning. Polls: Rich McCormick up 2.7.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+11
  • Incumbent:Rich McCormick (R)
  • District:7 of 14 in Georgia
  • Odds:McCormick 93%
  • Margin:McCormick +9.3, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:2, averaging McCormick +2.7
  • Latest poll:20/20 Insight, Oct 09, Kozycki +2.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

McCormick +9.3

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
McCormick +9.3
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
McCormick +15.4 to McCormick +3.2 (80 percent)
Poll average
McCormick +2.7 across 2 polls, worth 0.6 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
McCormick +14.0 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Kozycki ahead is positive, McCormick ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 2 public polls

  • 20/20 InsightKozycki +2
    Oct 09 · B/C · 457 LV47 to 45 · 92% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted McCormick +2.5
  • 20/20 InsightMcCormick +3
    Aug 26 · B/C · 445 LV43 to 46 · 8% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted McCormick +7.5

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Rich McCormick (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Tony Kozycki (D) vs Rich McCormick (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 35.1, Republican 64.9. district by 29.8.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 50.7, Harris 48.5. Trump by 2.2.
Lean
R+11 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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