Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

◀ Back to the seats

● House // Race file

[ House // GA-02 ]

Georgia's 2nd District

Sanford Bishop (D)vsMatt Day (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+4 · Incumbent: Sanford Bishop (D)

99 in 100

Sanford Bishop favored>99%

All but certain for Sanford Bishop: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+4
  • Incumbent:Sanford Bishop (D)
  • District:2 of 14 in Georgia
  • Odds:Bishop >99%
  • Margin:Bishop +21.6, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Bishop +21.6

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Bishop +21.6
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Bishop +13.7 to Bishop +29.5 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Bishop +21.6 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Bishop ahead is positive, Day ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+4, worth 7.0 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Sanford Bishop, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Bishop +21.6 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Sanford Bishop (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Sanford Bishop (D, incumbent) vs Matt Day (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 56.3, Republican 43.7. Bishop by 12.6.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 50.7, Harris 48.5. Trump by 2.2.
Lean
D+4 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

◀ Back to the seats