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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // GA-06 ]

Georgia's 6th District

Lucy McBath (D)vsKevin Martin (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+25 · Incumbent: Lucy McBath (D)

99 in 100

Lucy McBath favored>99%

All but certain for Lucy McBath: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+25
  • Incumbent:Lucy McBath (D)
  • District:6 of 14 in Georgia
  • Odds:McBath >99%
  • Margin:McBath +58.2, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

McBath +58.2

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
McBath +58.2
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
McBath +50.3 to McBath +66.1 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
McBath +58.2 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: McBath ahead is positive, Martin ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+25, worth 43.5 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Lucy McBath, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of McBath +58.2 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Lucy McBath (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Lucy McBath (D, incumbent) vs Kevin Martin (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 74.7, Republican 25.3. district by 49.4.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 50.7, Harris 48.5. Trump by 2.2.
Lean
D+25 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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