Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

◀ Back to the seats

● House // Race file

[ House // GA-12 ]

Georgia's 12th District

Ceretta Smith (D)vsRick Allen (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+7 · Incumbent: Rick Allen (R)

8 in 10

Rick Allen favored82%

Likely for Rick Allen: a 82 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+7
  • Incumbent:Rick Allen (R)
  • District:12 of 14 in Georgia
  • Odds:Allen 82%
  • Margin:Allen +7.0, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Allen +7.0

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Allen +7.0
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Allen +14.9 to Smith +0.9 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Allen +7.0 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Smith ahead is positive, Allen ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+7, worth 12.2 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Rick Allen, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Allen +7.0 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Rick Allen (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Ceretta Smith (D) vs Rick Allen (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 39.7, Republican 60.3. Allen by 20.6.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 50.7, Harris 48.5. Trump by 2.2.
Lean
R+7 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

◀ Back to the seats