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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // NY-14 ]

New York's 14th District

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)vsDiamant Hysenaj (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+19 · Incumbent: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)

99 in 100

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez favored>99%

All but certain for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+19
  • Incumbent:Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)
  • District:14 of 26 in New York
  • Odds:Ocasio-Cortez >99%
  • Margin:Ocasio-Cortez +47.7, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Ocasio-Cortez +47.7

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Ocasio-Cortez +47.7
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Ocasio-Cortez +39.8 to Ocasio-Cortez +55.6 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Ocasio-Cortez +47.7 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Ocasio-Cortez ahead is positive, Hysenaj ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+19, worth 33.1 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Ocasio-Cortez +47.7 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D, incumbent) vs Diamant Hysenaj (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 69.2, Republican 30.8. Ocasio-Cortez by 38.4.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 43.3, Harris 55.9. Harris by 12.6.
Lean
D+19 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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