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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // NY-19 ]

New York's 19th District

Josh Riley (D)vsPeter Oberacker (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+1 · Incumbent: Josh Riley (D)

9 in 10

Josh Riley favored99%

All but certain for Josh Riley: a 99 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+1
  • Incumbent:Josh Riley (D)
  • District:19 of 26 in New York
  • Odds:Riley 99%
  • Margin:Riley +16.4, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Riley +16.4

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Riley +16.4
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Riley +8.5 to Riley +24.3 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Riley +16.4 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Riley ahead is positive, Oberacker ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+1, worth 1.7 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Josh Riley, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Riley +16.4 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Josh Riley (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Josh Riley (D, incumbent) vs Peter Oberacker (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 51.1, Republican 48.9. Riley by 2.2.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 43.3, Harris 55.9. Harris by 12.6.
Lean
D+1 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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