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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // NY-20 ]

New York's 20th District

Paul Tonko (D)vsRalph Ambrosio (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+8 · Incumbent: Paul Tonko (D)

99 in 100

Paul Tonko favored>99%

All but certain for Paul Tonko: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+8
  • Incumbent:Paul Tonko (D)
  • District:20 of 26 in New York
  • Odds:Tonko >99%
  • Margin:Tonko +28.6, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Tonko +28.6

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Tonko +28.6
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Tonko +20.7 to Tonko +36.5 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Tonko +28.6 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Tonko ahead is positive, Ambrosio ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+8, worth 13.9 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Paul Tonko, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Tonko +28.6 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Paul Tonko (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Paul Tonko (D, incumbent) vs Ralph Ambrosio (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 61.1, Republican 38.9. Tonko by 22.2.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 43.3, Harris 55.9. Harris by 12.6.
Lean
D+8 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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