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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // NY-23 ]

New York's 23rd District

Aaron Gies (D)vsNick Langworthy (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+10 · Incumbent: Nick Langworthy (R)

99 in 100

Nick Langworthy favored>99%

All but certain for Nick Langworthy: a 99 percent chance of winning. Polls: Nick Langworthy up 20.9.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+10
  • Incumbent:Nick Langworthy (R)
  • District:23 of 26 in New York
  • Odds:Langworthy >99%
  • Margin:Langworthy +15.8, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:1, averaging Langworthy +20.9
  • Latest poll:Public Policy Polling, Sep 23, Langworthy +17.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Langworthy +15.8

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Langworthy +15.8
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Langworthy +21.9 to Langworthy +9.7 (80 percent)
Poll average
Langworthy +20.9 across 1 poll, worth 0.2 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Langworthy +12.2 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Gies ahead is positive, Langworthy ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 1 public poll

  • Public Policy PollingLangworthy +17
    Sep 23 · B+ · 626 LV35 to 52 · 100% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Langworthy +20.9

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Nick Langworthy (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Aaron Gies (D) vs Nick Langworthy (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 34.2, Republican 65.8. Langworthy by 31.6.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 43.3, Harris 55.9. Harris by 12.6.
Lean
R+10 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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