Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

◀ Back to the seats

● House // Race file

[ House // TX-16 ]

Texas's 16th District

Veronica Escobar (D)vsAdam Bauman (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+11 · Incumbent: Veronica Escobar (D)

99 in 100

Veronica Escobar favored>99%

All but certain for Veronica Escobar: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+11
  • Incumbent:Veronica Escobar (D)
  • District:16 of 38 in Texas
  • Odds:Escobar >99%
  • Margin:Escobar +33.8, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Escobar +33.8

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Escobar +33.8
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Escobar +25.9 to Escobar +41.7 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Escobar +33.8 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Escobar ahead is positive, Bauman ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+11, worth 19.1 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Veronica Escobar, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Escobar +33.8 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Veronica Escobar (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Veronica Escobar (D, incumbent) vs Adam Bauman (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 59.5, Republican 40.5. Escobar by 19.0.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 56.1, Harris 42.5. Trump by 13.7.
Lean
D+11 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

◀ Back to the seats