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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // TX-21 ]

Texas's 21st District

Kristin Hook (D)vsMark Teixeira (R)

open seat · Lean: R+10 · Incumbent: Chip Roy (R), not running

8 in 10

Mark Teixeira favored84%

Likely for Mark Teixeira: a 84 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Lean:R+10
  • Incumbent:Chip Roy (R), not running
  • District:21 of 38 in Texas
  • Odds:Teixeira 84%
  • Margin:Teixeira +7.5, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Teixeira +7.5

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Teixeira +7.5
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Teixeira +15.4 to Hook +0.4 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Teixeira +7.5 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Hook ahead is positive, Teixeira ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+10, worth 17.4 points to the Republican), an open seat with no incumbency bonus, and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Teixeira +7.5 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Chip Roy (R) is running for attorney general instead. Open seat.
On the ballot
Kristin Hook (D) vs Mark Teixeira (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 36.1, Republican 61.9. Roy by 25.8.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 56.1, Harris 42.5. Trump by 13.7.
Lean
R+10 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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