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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // TX-22 ]

Texas's 22nd District

Marquette Greene-Scott (D)vsTrever Nehls (R)

open seat · Lean: R+11 · Incumbent: Troy Nehls (R), not running

9 in 10

Trever Nehls favored89%

Very likely for Trever Nehls: a 89 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Lean:R+11
  • Incumbent:Troy Nehls (R), not running
  • District:22 of 38 in Texas
  • Odds:Nehls 89%
  • Margin:Nehls +9.2, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Nehls +9.2

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Nehls +9.2
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Nehls +17.1 to Nehls +1.3 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Nehls +9.2 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Greene-Scott ahead is positive, Nehls ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+11, worth 19.1 points to the Republican), an open seat with no incumbency bonus, and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Nehls +9.2 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Troy Nehls (R) is retiring. Open seat.
On the ballot
Marquette Greene-Scott (D) vs Trever Nehls (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 37.9, Republican 62.1. Nehls by 24.2.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 56.1, Harris 42.5. Trump by 13.7.
Lean
R+11 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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