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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // TX-23 ]

Texas's 23rd District

Katy Padilla Stout (D)vsBrandon Herrera (R)

open seat · Lean: R+7 · Incumbent: Vacant

7 in 10

Brandon Herrera favored73%

Likely for Brandon Herrera: a 73 percent chance of winning. Polls: Brandon Herrera up 5.9.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Lean:R+7
  • Incumbent:Vacant
  • District:23 of 38 in Texas
  • Odds:Herrera 73%
  • Margin:Herrera +3.8, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:1, averaging Herrera +5.9
  • Latest poll:Public Policy Polling, Mar 11, Herrera +2.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Herrera +3.8

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Herrera +3.8
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Herrera +9.9 to Stout +2.3 (80 percent)
Poll average
Herrera +5.9 across 1 poll, worth 0.0 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Herrera +2.3 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Stout ahead is positive, Herrera ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 1 public poll

  • Public Policy PollingHerrera +2
    Mar 11 · B+ · 521 RV45 to 47 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Herrera +5.9

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
New seat, no incumbent.
On the ballot
Katy Padilla Stout (D) vs Brandon Herrera (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 37.7, Republican 62.3. Gonzales by 24.6.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 56.1, Harris 42.5. Trump by 13.7.
Lean
R+7 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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