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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // TX-24 ]

Texas's 24th District

Kevin Burge (D)vsBeth Van Duyne (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+8 · Incumbent: Beth Van Duyne (R)

9 in 10

Beth Van Duyne favored88%

Very likely for Beth Van Duyne: a 88 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+8
  • Incumbent:Beth Van Duyne (R)
  • District:24 of 38 in Texas
  • Odds:Duyne 88%
  • Margin:Duyne +8.8, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Duyne +8.8

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Duyne +8.8
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Duyne +16.7 to Duyne +0.9 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Duyne +8.8 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Burge ahead is positive, Duyne ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+8, worth 13.9 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Beth Van Duyne, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Duyne +8.8 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Beth Van Duyne (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Kevin Burge (D) vs Beth Van Duyne (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 39.7, Republican 60.3. Duyne by 20.6.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 56.1, Harris 42.5. Trump by 13.7.
Lean
R+8 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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