Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

◀ Back to the seats

● House // Race file

[ House // TX-26 ]

Texas's 26th District

Steven Shook (D)vsBrandon Gill (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+11 · Incumbent: Brandon Gill (R)

9 in 10

Brandon Gill favored97%

Very likely for Brandon Gill: a 97 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+11
  • Incumbent:Brandon Gill (R)
  • District:26 of 38 in Texas
  • Odds:Gill 97%
  • Margin:Gill +14.0, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Gill +14.0

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Gill +14.0
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Gill +21.9 to Gill +6.1 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Gill +14.0 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Shook ahead is positive, Gill ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+11, worth 19.1 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Brandon Gill, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Gill +14.0 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Brandon Gill (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Steven Shook (D) vs Brandon Gill (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 35.7, Republican 62.1. Gill by 26.4.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 56.1, Harris 42.5. Trump by 13.7.
Lean
R+11 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

◀ Back to the seats