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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // TX-28 ]

Texas's 28th District

Henry Cuellar (D)vsTano Tijerina (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+3 · Incumbent: Henry Cuellar (D)

9 in 10

Henry Cuellar favored94%

Very likely for Henry Cuellar: a 94 percent chance of winning. Polls: Henry Cuellar up 10.9.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+3
  • Incumbent:Henry Cuellar (D)
  • District:28 of 38 in Texas
  • Odds:Cuellar 94%
  • Margin:Cuellar +10.0, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:2, averaging Cuellar +10.9
  • Latest poll:Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center, Aug 22, Cuellar +11.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Cuellar +10.0

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Cuellar +10.0
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Cuellar +3.9 to Cuellar +16.1 (80 percent)
Poll average
Cuellar +10.9 across 2 polls, worth 0.0 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Cuellar +9.4 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Cuellar ahead is positive, Tijerina ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 2 public polls

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Henry Cuellar (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Henry Cuellar (D, incumbent) vs Tano Tijerina (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 52.8, Republican 47.2. Cuellar by 5.6.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 56.1, Harris 42.5. Trump by 13.7.
Lean
R+3 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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