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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // TX-29 ]

Texas's 29th District

Sylvia Garcia (D)vsMartha Fierro (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+17 · Incumbent: Sylvia Garcia (D)

99 in 100

Sylvia Garcia favored>99%

All but certain for Sylvia Garcia: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+17
  • Incumbent:Sylvia Garcia (D)
  • District:29 of 38 in Texas
  • Odds:Garcia >99%
  • Margin:Garcia +44.2, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Garcia +44.2

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Garcia +44.2
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Garcia +36.3 to Garcia +52.1 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Garcia +44.2 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Garcia ahead is positive, Fierro ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+17, worth 29.6 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Sylvia Garcia, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Garcia +44.2 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Sylvia Garcia (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Sylvia Garcia (D, incumbent) vs Martha Fierro (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 65.3, Republican 34.7. Garcia by 30.6.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 56.1, Harris 42.5. Trump by 13.7.
Lean
D+17 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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