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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // TX-32 ]

Texas's 32nd District

Dan Barrios (D)vsJace Yarbrough (R)

open seat · Lean: R+8 · Incumbent: None (new seat)

7 in 10

Jace Yarbrough favored71%

Likely for Jace Yarbrough: a 71 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Lean:R+8
  • Incumbent:None (new seat)
  • District:32 of 38 in Texas
  • Odds:Yarbrough 71%
  • Margin:Yarbrough +4.0, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Yarbrough +4.0

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Yarbrough +4.0
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Yarbrough +11.9 to Barrios +3.9 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Yarbrough +4.0 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Barrios ahead is positive, Yarbrough ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+8, worth 13.9 points to the Republican), an open seat with no incumbency bonus, and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Yarbrough +4.0 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
New seat, no incumbent.
On the ballot
Dan Barrios (D) vs Jace Yarbrough (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 60.5, Republican 37.0. Democrat by 23.5. Under the previous map.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 56.1, Harris 42.5. Trump by 13.7.
Lean
R+8 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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