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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // TX-34 ]

Texas's 34th District

Vicente Gonzalez (D)vsEric Flores (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+3 · Incumbent: Vicente Gonzalez (D)

9 in 10

Vicente Gonzalez favored86%

Very likely for Vicente Gonzalez: a 86 percent chance of winning. Polls: Vicente Gonzalez up 3.0.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+3
  • Incumbent:Vicente Gonzalez (D)
  • District:34 of 38 in Texas
  • Odds:Gonzalez 86%
  • Margin:Gonzalez +6.8, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:3, averaging Gonzalez +3.0
  • Latest poll:Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center, Aug 22, Gonzalez +3.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Gonzalez +6.8

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Gonzalez +6.8
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Gonzalez +0.7 to Gonzalez +12.9 (80 percent)
Poll average
Gonzalez +3.0 across 3 polls, worth 0.0 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Gonzalez +9.4 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Gonzalez ahead is positive, Flores ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 3 public polls

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Vicente Gonzalez (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Vicente Gonzalez (D, incumbent) vs Eric Flores (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 51.3, Republican 48.7. Gonzalez by 2.6.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 56.1, Harris 42.5. Trump by 13.7.
Lean
R+3 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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