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[ House // PA-08 ]

Pennsylvania's 8th District

Paige Cognetti (D)vsRob Bresnahan (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+4 · Incumbent: Rob Bresnahan (R)

a coin flip

Too close to callBresnahan 51%

The model gives Paige Cognetti a 49 percent chance and Rob Bresnahan 51 percent. Inside five points either way the model does not name a favorite. Polls: Paige Cognetti up 1.6.

  • Margin:Bresnahan +0.2, give or take 4.6
  • Polls:4, averaging Cognetti +1.6
  • Latest poll:Emerson College, Oct 14, Cognetti +4.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.4
  • District:8 of 17 in Pennsylvania

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Bresnahan +0.2

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.6 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Bresnahan +0.2
Uncertainty
give or take 4.6 points, the usual size of a miss
Likely range
Bresnahan +6.1 to Cognetti +5.7 (80 percent)
Poll average
Cognetti +1.6 across 4 polls, about as much information as 1 fresh poll
Starting point
Bresnahan +1.6 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Cognetti ahead is positive, Bresnahan ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 4 public polls

  • Emerson CollegeCognetti +4
    Oct 14 · A · 396 LV52 to 48 · 100% weight
    adjusted Cognetti +1.6
  • Lake Research PartnersCognetti +2
    Jun 23 · A/B · 400 LV47 to 45 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Bresnahan +2.3
  • Impact ResearchCognetti +1
    Jun 11 · B/C · 500 LV46 to 45 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Bresnahan +2.4
  • Public Policy PollingCognetti +2
    Aug 28 · B+ · 615 RV45 to 43 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Cognetti +0.2

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Campaign money // FEC filings

Counting the campaign accounts…

▸ Personal finances // Official disclosures

Loading the disclosure links.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Rob Bresnahan (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Paige Cognetti (D) vs Rob Bresnahan (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 49.2, Republican 50.8. Bresnahan by 1.6.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 50.4, Harris 48.7. Trump by 1.7.
Lean
R+4 by the Cook partisan index
The raters
Cook Tossup · Sabato Tossup · Inside Elections Tilt D

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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