Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

◀ Back to the seats

● House // Race file

[ House // PA-11 ]

Pennsylvania's 11th District

Nancy Mannion (D)vsLloyd Smucker (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+11 · Incumbent: Lloyd Smucker (R)

9 in 10

Lloyd Smucker favored97%

Very likely for Lloyd Smucker: a 97 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+11
  • Incumbent:Lloyd Smucker (R)
  • District:11 of 17 in Pennsylvania
  • Odds:Smucker 97%
  • Margin:Smucker +14.0, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Smucker +14.0

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Smucker +14.0
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Smucker +21.9 to Smucker +6.1 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Smucker +14.0 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Mannion ahead is positive, Smucker ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+11, worth 19.1 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Lloyd Smucker, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Smucker +14.0 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Lloyd Smucker (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Nancy Mannion (D) vs Lloyd Smucker (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 37.1, Republican 62.9. Smucker by 25.8.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 50.4, Harris 48.7. Trump by 1.7.
Lean
R+11 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

◀ Back to the seats