Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

◀ Back to the seats

● House // Race file

[ House // PA-02 ]

Pennsylvania's 2nd District

Brendan Boyle (D)vsJessica Arriaga (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+19 · Incumbent: Brendan Boyle (D)

99 in 100

Brendan Boyle favored>99%

All but certain for Brendan Boyle: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+19
  • Incumbent:Brendan Boyle (D)
  • District:2 of 17 in Pennsylvania
  • Odds:Boyle >99%
  • Margin:Boyle +47.7, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Boyle +47.7

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Boyle +47.7
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Boyle +39.8 to Boyle +55.6 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Boyle +47.7 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Boyle ahead is positive, Arriaga ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+19, worth 33.1 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Brendan Boyle, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Boyle +47.7 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Brendan Boyle (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Brendan Boyle (D, incumbent) vs Jessica Arriaga (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 71.5, Republican 28.6. Boyle by 42.9.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 50.4, Harris 48.7. Trump by 1.7.
Lean
D+19 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

◀ Back to the seats