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T-minus 16 days

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[ House // PA-07 ]

Pennsylvania's 7th District

Bob Brooks (D)vsRyan Mackenzie (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+1 · Incumbent: Ryan Mackenzie (R)

7 in 10

Bob Brooks favored74%

Likely for Bob Brooks: a 74 percent chance of winning. Polls: Bob Brooks up 5.0.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+1
  • Incumbent:Ryan Mackenzie (R)
  • District:7 of 17 in Pennsylvania
  • Odds:Brooks 74%
  • Margin:Brooks +4.1, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:2, averaging Brooks +5.0
  • Latest poll:Franklin & Marshall College, Sep 20, Brooks +5.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Brooks +4.1

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Brooks +4.1
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Mackenzie +2.0 to Brooks +10.2 (80 percent)
Poll average
Brooks +5.0 across 2 polls, worth 0.1 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Brooks +3.4 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Brooks ahead is positive, Mackenzie ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 2 public polls

  • Franklin & Marshall CollegeBrooks +5
    Sep 20 · A/B · 350 RV45 to 40 · 100% weight
  • GBAOBrooks +4
    Jul 02 · B/C47 to 43 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Brooks +0.5

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Ryan Mackenzie (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Bob Brooks (D) vs Ryan Mackenzie (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 49.5, Republican 50.5. Mackenzie by 1.0.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 50.4, Harris 48.7. Trump by 1.7.
Lean
R+1 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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