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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // PA-04 ]

Pennsylvania's 4th District

Madeleine Dean (D)vsAurora Stuski (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+8 · Incumbent: Madeleine Dean (D)

99 in 100

Madeleine Dean favored>99%

All but certain for Madeleine Dean: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+8
  • Incumbent:Madeleine Dean (D)
  • District:4 of 17 in Pennsylvania
  • Odds:Dean >99%
  • Margin:Dean +28.6, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Dean +28.6

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Dean +28.6
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Dean +20.7 to Dean +36.5 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Dean +28.6 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Dean ahead is positive, Stuski ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+8, worth 13.9 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Madeleine Dean, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Dean +28.6 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Madeleine Dean (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Madeleine Dean (D, incumbent) vs Aurora Stuski (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 59.1, Republican 40.9. Dean by 18.2.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 50.4, Harris 48.7. Trump by 1.7.
Lean
D+8 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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