T-minus 16 days
● House // Race file
[ House // PA-01 ]
Pennsylvania's 1st District
Bob Harvie (D)vsBrian Fitzpatrick (R)
incumbent running · Lean: D+1 · Incumbent: Brian Fitzpatrick (R)
7 in 10
Bob Harvie favored66%
Likely for Bob Harvie: a 66 percent chance of winning. Polls: Brian Fitzpatrick up 3.5.
- Seat:Incumbent running
- Lean:D+1
- Incumbent:Brian Fitzpatrick (R)
- District:1 of 17 in Pennsylvania
- Odds:Harvie 66%
- Margin:Harvie +2.6, give or take 4.8
- Polls:6, averaging Fitzpatrick +3.5
- Latest poll:Global Strategy Group, Oct 08, tied
- Generic ballot:D+8.2
- T-minus:16 days
▸ Margin // Uncertainty
Harvie +2.6
The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.
- Projected margin
- Harvie +2.6
- Uncertainty
- 4.8 points, one standard deviation
- Likely range
- Fitzpatrick +3.5 to Harvie +8.7 (80 percent)
- Poll average
- Fitzpatrick +3.5 across 6 polls, worth 0.6 fresh polls after weighting
- Starting point
- Harvie +6.9 before any polls
Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Harvie ahead is positive, Fitzpatrick ahead is negative.
▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots
Reading the history
▸ Polls // 6 public polls
- Oct 08 · B/C · 1,032 LV46 to 46 · 68% weightDemocratic sponsoradjusted Fitzpatrick +3.1
- Public Opinion StrategiesFitzpatrick +9Sep 14 · A · 400 RV42 to 51 · 26% weightRepublican sponsoradjusted Fitzpatrick +4.5
- GQRFitzpatrick +1Aug 23 · A- · 400 LV48 to 49 · 5% weightDemocratic sponsoradjusted Fitzpatrick +3.3
- Global Strategy GroupFitzpatrick +4Aug 09 · B/C · 500 LV43 to 47 · 0% weightDemocratic sponsoradjusted Fitzpatrick +7.1
- Global Strategy GroupFitzpatrick +6Mar 22 · B/C · 400 LV42 to 48 · 0% weightDemocratic sponsoradjusted Fitzpatrick +9.1
- Oct 11 · B+ · 585 LV41 to 41 · 0% weightDemocratic sponsoradjusted Fitzpatrick +3.9
| Pollster | Grade | Date | Sample | Result | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy GroupDemocratic sponsor | B/C | Oct 08 | 1,032LV | Tie46 to 46adjusted Fitzpatrick +3.1 | 68% |
| Public Opinion StrategiesRepublican sponsor | A | Sep 14 | 400RV | Fitzpatrick +942 to 51adjusted Fitzpatrick +4.5 | 26% |
| GQRDemocratic sponsor | A- | Aug 23 | 400LV | Fitzpatrick +148 to 49adjusted Fitzpatrick +3.3 | 5% |
| Global Strategy GroupDemocratic sponsor | B/C | Aug 09 | 500LV | Fitzpatrick +443 to 47adjusted Fitzpatrick +7.1 | 0% |
| Global Strategy GroupDemocratic sponsor | B/C | Mar 22 | 400LV | Fitzpatrick +642 to 48adjusted Fitzpatrick +9.1 | 0% |
| Public Policy PollingDemocratic sponsor | B+ | Oct 11 | 585LV | Tie41 to 41adjusted Fitzpatrick +3.9 | 0% |
Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.
▸ Race file // The facts
- The seat
- Brian Fitzpatrick (R), running for another term.
- On the ballot
- Bob Harvie (D) vs Brian Fitzpatrick (R, incumbent)
- Last time
- 2024: Democrat 43.6, Republican 56.4. Fitzpatrick by 12.8.
- President
- 2024, statewide: Trump 50.4, Harris 48.7. Trump by 1.7.
- Lean
- D+1 by the Cook partisan index
Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗
▸ Candidates // Read more
Democrat
Bob Harvie
Harvie on Ballotpedia ↗Republican
Brian Fitzpatrick
Fitzpatrick on Ballotpedia ↗