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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // PA-05 ]

Pennsylvania's 5th District

Mary Gay Scanlon (D)vsNicholas Manganaro (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+15 · Incumbent: Mary Gay Scanlon (D)

99 in 100

Mary Gay Scanlon favored>99%

All but certain for Mary Gay Scanlon: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+15
  • Incumbent:Mary Gay Scanlon (D)
  • District:5 of 17 in Pennsylvania
  • Odds:Scanlon >99%
  • Margin:Scanlon +40.8, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Scanlon +40.8

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Scanlon +40.8
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Scanlon +32.9 to Scanlon +48.7 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Scanlon +40.8 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Scanlon ahead is positive, Manganaro ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+15, worth 26.1 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Mary Gay Scanlon, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Scanlon +40.8 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Mary Gay Scanlon (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Mary Gay Scanlon (D, incumbent) vs Nicholas Manganaro (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 65.3, Republican 34.7. Scanlon by 30.6.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 50.4, Harris 48.7. Trump by 1.7.
Lean
D+15 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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