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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // PA-09 ]

Pennsylvania's 9th District

Rachel Wallace (D)vsDan Meuser (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+19 · Incumbent: Dan Meuser (R)

99 in 100

Dan Meuser favored>99%

All but certain for Dan Meuser: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+19
  • Incumbent:Dan Meuser (R)
  • District:9 of 17 in Pennsylvania
  • Odds:Meuser >99%
  • Margin:Meuser +27.9, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Meuser +27.9

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Meuser +27.9
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Meuser +35.8 to Meuser +20.0 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Meuser +27.9 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Wallace ahead is positive, Meuser ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+19, worth 33.1 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Dan Meuser, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Meuser +27.9 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Dan Meuser (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Rachel Wallace (D) vs Dan Meuser (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 29.5, Republican 70.5. Meuser by 41.0.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 50.4, Harris 48.7. Trump by 1.7.
Lean
R+19 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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