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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // GA-13 ]

Georgia's 13th District

Jasmine Clark (D)vsJonathan Chavez (R)

open seat · Lean: D+21 · Incumbent: Everton Blair (D), not running

99 in 100

Jasmine Clark favored>99%

All but certain for Jasmine Clark: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Lean:D+21
  • Incumbent:Everton Blair (D), not running
  • District:13 of 14 in Georgia
  • Odds:Clark >99%
  • Margin:Clark +46.4, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Clark +46.4

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Clark +46.4
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Clark +38.5 to Clark +54.3 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Clark +46.4 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Clark ahead is positive, Chavez ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+21, worth 36.5 points to the Democrat), an open seat with no incumbency bonus, and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Clark +46.4 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Everton Blair (D) lost the primary. Open seat.
On the ballot
Jasmine Clark (D) vs Jonathan Chavez (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 71.8, Republican 28.2. Scott by 43.6.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 50.7, Harris 48.5. Trump by 2.2.
Lean
D+21 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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